A (Resonant) Wave
Picture a sandy beach with waves lapping at the shoreline. Each wave represents a potential draft year, and the size of each wave is based on the number of draft selections in a given year. The shallower the wave, the less volume it contains. The larger the wave, the larger the water volume or amount of draft picks.
As the waves meet the shoreline, the smaller waves roll onto the sand, barely making a sound and not disturbing the surroundings. As the waves grow larger, they begin to crest, forming small white caps. If the seas are choppy, you’ll notice waves crashing into each other before meeting the shoreline, sapping their energy and reducing how far up the sand the wave travels.
Now, pretend a large vessel named “Rebuild” is passing near shore. The waves begin to land harmonically, one after the other. These waves arrive not as the natural order of things but as waves set in motion by man-made decision-making. Consistent in their size, the waves roll onto the beach one after the other with predictable frequency, growing slightly with each wave. Now, as the vessel begins to exit from view, the full extent of its wake begins to land against the beach. The riptide of water leaving the beach has the waves cresting earlier and higher. Large waves with small white caps become giants, now beginning to form the familiar tube shape. The waves are no longer lapping against the sandy beach but crashing into it, darkening the sand as they reach further up the beach.
So it is with the Resonant Wave Theory of drafting and development.
Considering the resonant wave theory of team building, elite players on bargain contracts smooth the height and intensity of the waves. As these contracts disappear in favour of lower-term, higher percentage cap Average Annual Value (“aav”) contracts, the resonant waves will become choppier, potentially scuttling another contention window.
To combat these choppy waves of talent, teams will have to consider strategies that seek to harmonize these waves from chaotic, turbulent seas that cannibalize the energy from each other into homeomorphic, discrete waves that use the wake of the previous wave to increase the energy potential and velocity of the next wave.
Drafting for a rebuild requires consistently drafting high volume AND high value, increasing the potential amplitude of that wave by as much as possible. Multiple years (3+) with numerous selections in the first thirty (2), sixty (4-5), and ninety (6-7) picks range is how to set those waves in motion. Continuing to draft multiple times in all rounds, yielding ten to fifteen draft selections per year, is the best way to increase the amplitude or volume of each wave.